日本近期的大米價格危機

 
@k22kk22k
Japanese here.
JA is a de facto conglomerate not only for farmers but also average rural people.
For example, they have a bank providing the most hassle-free services optimized for older people (no withdrawal fee, ATM is conveniently located).
Also they have a network of gas stations, and their price is considerably lower than other competitors (~5 yen per liter less).
Their services are almost essential for farmers to meet their ends.
JA’s interest seems to make their superior political position sustainable.
They provide vital services for farmers, but influence politics to keep them mildly poor. Innovation and reform are discouraged by policies thus the prices of produce is somewhat fixed, enabling JA to keep their economic scale relatively large and stable.
 
我是日本人。
日本農(nóng)業(yè)協(xié)同組合（JA）實際上不僅是農(nóng)民的聯(lián)合體，也是普通農(nóng)村人的大集團。
比如，他們有家銀行，專門為老年人提供最便捷的服務(wù)（免取款手續(xù)費，ATM位置方便）。
他們還有個加油站網(wǎng)絡(luò)，價格比其他競爭對手低不少（每升大約便宜5日元）。
他們的服務(wù)對農(nóng)民來說幾乎是不可或缺的，可以幫他們維持生計。
JA的利益似乎在于維持他們的優(yōu)越的政治地位。
他們?yōu)檗r(nóng)民提供了關(guān)鍵服務(wù)，但通過影響政治讓農(nóng)民保持輕度貧困。他們的政策阻礙了創(chuàng)新和改革，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格多少被固定，讓JA能維持相對較大且穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模。
 
@hamaljay
I lived in Okayama Japan for 8 years. It's the rice basket of Japan (It also grows giant white peaches and giant grapes) in the neighborhood I lived in for 8 years I watched nearly 80% of the rice fields turn into housing. When my wife was a child in that same neighborhood she said she could see several kilometers away and it was just rice fields. Now it's housing, drug and convenience stores. Every time an old person died his kids sold off the land to a developer who built a house, an apartment building, drug store, or a convenience store on the plot.
 
我在日本岡山生活了8年。那里是日本的“米倉”（還種巨大的白桃和巨型葡萄）。我在那個社區(qū)生活了8年，眼看著近80%的稻田變成了住宅區(qū)。我妻子小時候說，在同一個社區(qū)，她能看到幾公里外全是稻田?，F(xiàn)在那兒都是住宅、藥店和便利店。每次有老人去世，他們的子女就把地賣給開發(fā)商建房子、公寓樓、藥店或便利店。
 
@SynxSP
As a resident of Japan coming from a country in Europe where rice is dirty cheap (less than 1 eur per kilo) Japanese rice always seemed expensive to me and looking into the protectionism and intervention of the market from the Japanese government I could see why. They created the problem in the first place and solving it now will have a huge impact on everyone no matter what.
 
作為來自歐洲一個大米超便宜的國家（每公斤不到1歐元）的日本居民，日本大米對我來說一直很貴。在研究了日本政府的保護主義和市場干預(yù)后，我明白了原因。他們一開始就制造了這個問題，現(xiàn)在解決它無論如何都會對所有人產(chǎn)生巨大的影響。
 
@twowheelsintokyo7039
Something most people don't know about Japan is its electoral system. Those who live in rural areas, and/or who are farmers get 2 to 3 votes per person, while those of us who live in the cities and suburbs get only 1 vote. The LPD has for decades bought these votes via subsidies and import tariffs, giving Japanese farmers a virtual monopoly on rice production, and giving politicians a captive pool of voters. Another problem is that in every part of Japan's economy, prices are not governed by the free market, but by business and the government. If you go to see a movie in Japan, you'll find that every theater charges the same price, no matter who owns or operates the theater. Japan's beer comes from 5 main brewing companies, and these breweries, rather than compete against one another, actually work with one another to keep prices high. Decades ago there was public outcry when beer prices were raised, as all 5 brewers and all their brands raised prices the exact same amount on the same day. As an exporter based in Japan, I remember the period of the financial crisis, when the yen gained from 133 to 74 to the dollar. This should have caused the prices of imported goods to fall by some 70%, and provided a windfall to American and European exporters. But Japan's importers and distributors kept prices high, with state support by claiming that "consumers needed to be protected from price fluctuations." A friend of mine at Nikkei was interviewing a BMW dealer in Tokyo, and being young and naive, she asked the dealer how many more cars he was selling due to the stronger yen. He coughed and hemmed, and avoided answering the question. The reality was that BMW prices weren't reduced a single yen, as Japan's powers-that-be won't let imported cars compete against domestic manufacturers. Japanese consumers get screwed at every turn, and this is one of the issues which is causing Japan's population to decline.
 
很多人不知道日本的選舉制度。生活在農(nóng)村或做農(nóng)民的人每人能投2到3票，而我們這些生活在城市和郊區(qū)的人只有1票。幾十年來，自民黨通過補貼和進口關(guān)稅購買這些選票，讓日本農(nóng)民幾乎壟斷了稻米生產(chǎn)，也讓政客有了一群穩(wěn)定的選民。另一個問題是日本經(jīng)濟的每個部分，價格都不由自由市場決定，而是由企業(yè)和政府控制。在日本看電影，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)每家影院的票價都一樣，不管是誰擁有或運營。日本的啤酒來自5家主要的釀酒公司，這些釀酒廠不互相競爭，反而合作保持高價。幾十年前，啤酒價格上漲時引發(fā)了公眾抗議，因為5家釀酒商的所有品牌在同一天漲了同樣的幅度。作為日本的出口商，我記得金融危機時，日元從133兌1美元升值到74兌1美元。這本該讓進口商品價格下降約70%，但日本的進口商和分銷商在政府的支持下保持高價，他們聲稱“需要保護消費者免受價格波動的影響”。我一個在《日經(jīng)》的朋友采訪東京的寶馬經(jīng)銷商時，年輕天真的他問經(jīng)銷商因為日元升值多賣了多少車。他咳嗽著支吾，沒有回答問題?，F(xiàn)實是寶馬的價格一分沒降，因為日本的掌權(quán)者不讓進口車跟本土制造商競爭。日本消費者處處被坑，這也是導(dǎo)致日本人口下降的原因之一。
 
@michaelthayer5351
So basically Japan got to be self-sufficient in rice only because tastes shifted to other imported foods like meat and wheat, which combined with the declining population made up for a collapse in rice production by a third. Prices are only likely to continue rising as more part time rice farmers quit due to a combination of getting too old and the Rice Cartel's entrenched bureaucracy and heavy-handedness driving away those young enough to dream about being a salaryman in a city somewhere.
I feel like Japan needs another round of land reform that allows farmers to accumulate enough acreage to make a decent living and invest in additional mechanization to make up for a lack of farm labor. It's either they do that this decade or be forced to adopt corporate farming sometime in the 2030s-40s with large conglomerates like Mitsubishi owning and farming tens of thousands of acres as they'll be the only ones left to organize it. Or Japan will have even more import dependency possibly reaching ~80% of all calories.
 
基本上，日本能在大米上自給自足，這只是因為人們的口味轉(zhuǎn)向了進口食品，如肉類和小麥，加上人口下降，彌補了稻米產(chǎn)量下降三分之一的缺口。隨著更多兼職稻農(nóng)因年老或稻米卡特爾的根深蒂固的官僚作風(fēng)和高壓手段退出，價格很可能會繼續(xù)上漲，這些年輕人還夢想去城市當白領(lǐng)。
我覺得日本需要再來一次土地改革，讓農(nóng)民能積累足夠的土地，過上體面的生活并投資更多機械化來彌補農(nóng)業(yè)勞動力的不足。要么在這十年內(nèi)做到，要么到2030-40年代被迫采用企業(yè)化農(nóng)業(yè)，像三菱這樣的大集團擁有并耕種數(shù)萬英畝土地，因為他們將是唯一能組織起來的企業(yè)。否則，日本的進口依賴會更嚴重，可能高達所有所需卡路里的80%。
 
@Flint_Ironstag
My family and I moved to Japan a few months ago and rice prices are so high that imported American rice is a 20%-30% cheaper than Japanese rice even after the tariffs. We’re a bunch of Midwesterners so we see no discernible taste difference so we’re happy to save the money where we can
 
我和我的家人幾個月前搬到日本，這里的大米價格高得離譜，即使算上關(guān)稅，進口的美國大米也比日本大米便宜20%-30%。我們是中西部人，感覺不到口感差別，所以能省錢的地方我們都很開心。
 
@gj1234567899999
There is no way Japanese rice can compete unless there is massive consolidation to make bigger farms which is politically infeasible at the moment it seems. Rice is “cheap” because rice farmers in Southeast Asia don’t get paid much and American rice farmers have huge plots of land to make use of scale. Japanese farmers have neither of these things. Japanese rice farmers can either be paid little or consolidate.
 
日本大米沒法參與競爭，除非大規(guī)模整合成大農(nóng)場，但目前看來這在政治上不可行。大米“便宜”是因為東南亞稻農(nóng)工資低，美國稻農(nóng)有大片土地利用規(guī)模經(jīng)濟，而日本農(nóng)民這兩樣都沒有。日本的稻農(nóng)要么拿低薪，要么整合。
 
@n2n8sda
tldr it is piss poor government management.
They government rice farmers to not grow rice for food to avoid an oversupply, help to keep the price high. I know several rice farmers who are paid government subsidy money to either not grow anything or grow a different kind of rice that isn't used for human consumption. Since 1990 the amount of rice fields in production has dropped over 30%, which wasn't a huge issue as during the same time period the average Japanese family consumes 50% less rice, bread based products outsold rice for the first time a few years ago.
However, Japan now has an all time high number of foreign workers, mainly from neighbouring Asian countries who eat a lot of rice, record numbers of tourists and a climate that is changing that makes good yields of rice more difficult.
The fact the government tried to blame tourists initially for rice just shows how they are unwilling to admit their agricultural policies are not robust and they have cut rice production so fine that any small changes to either consumption or yield will result in shortages, which then creates panic buying which further leads to more shortages.
 
總結(jié)就是政府管理爛透了。
政府補貼稻農(nóng)不種食用大米以防供應(yīng)過剩，幫著把價格抬高。我認識幾個稻農(nóng)，他們拿著政府的補貼要么啥也不種，要么種不供人吃的其他大米。自1990年以來，日本的稻田面積下降了30%以上，這在以前不是大問題，因為同期日本家庭的平均大米消費量降了50%，幾年前面包類產(chǎn)品的銷量首次超過大米。
但現(xiàn)在，日本有有史以來最多的外籍勞工，他們主要來自鄰近的亞洲國家，他們吃很多大米，還有創(chuàng)紀錄的游客，以及氣候變化讓大米更難高產(chǎn)。
政府一開始試圖責(zé)怪游客導(dǎo)致大米短缺，這只是表明他們不愿承認農(nóng)業(yè)政策不穩(wěn)健，他們把大米生產(chǎn)削減得太精準，消費或產(chǎn)量的任何小變化都會導(dǎo)致短缺并引發(fā)恐慌性搶購，進一步加劇短缺。
 
@ichifish
Kudos for getting "rice price crisis" out perfectly. What's happening is that Japan has traded short term convenience for long term stability and security. It's not just rice that is through the roof. Thanks to the weak yen all of the 60% of our food that is imported is more expensive, some of it more than doubling in price. So we're not just getting slammed on rice, basics like flour, oil, and fruit have skyrocketed. This is only going to get worse as climate change wreaks havoc on the exporters we rely on and food becomes a bargaining chip in regional security matters. But as we get squeezed more consumers rely on imported packaged food and fast-food joints, which makes farming even less profitable. About 10 years back we looked into starting a family farm, but in both of the towns we looked at the regulations for what we could or couldn't produce and which coop we'd have to get permission from to grow certain things were so onerous that we gave up.
 
我要表揚你把“大米價格危機”說得太到位了，現(xiàn)在的情況是日本為了短期便利犧牲了長期的穩(wěn)定和安全。不只是大米的價格瘋漲，由于日元疲軟，我們60%的進口食品都更貴了，有些價格翻倍還不止。所以不光是大米，面粉、油、水果這些基礎(chǔ)品的價格也在暴漲。隨著氣候變化重創(chuàng)我們依賴的出口國，食品變成區(qū)域安全博弈的籌碼，情況只會更糟。但隨著我們被壓榨，更多消費者依賴進口包裝食品和快餐店，這讓農(nóng)業(yè)更不賺錢。大約10年前，我們考慮開個家庭農(nóng)場，但在我們看過的兩個鎮(zhèn)上，關(guān)于能種什么、不能種什么以及得從哪個合作社那兒拿許可的規(guī)定太繁瑣，我們放棄了。
 
@Verpal
What I found interesting is price of Japan sourced rice bought in Hong Kong is actually not too far from the recently deployed Japanese government rice, considering cost of transport and custom, one might even consider price of Japanese rice in Hong Kong equal or lower.
How does that happen I have zero idea, just found it interesting.
 
我發(fā)現(xiàn)有意思的是在香港（特區(qū)）買的日本產(chǎn)大米的價格跟日本政府最近投放的大米的價格差不了太多，考慮到運輸和海關(guān)成本，有人甚至可能覺得香港（特區(qū)）的日本大米價格于日本差不多或更低。
這咋回事我完全沒頭緒，就是覺得挺有趣。
 
@fyang1429
It's funny to mention that Japan produces less rice than other neighboring countries without mentioning rice production per capita. Japan was an industrialized nation by 1961, the others were not.
It's like asking why Japan chose to do more tech back then than becoming the rice cartel that is Thailand or not force farmers to buy expensive equipment they struggle to pay back like the US.
Japan may need to reform its agriculture today, but that historical inefficiency probably happened with other reasons in mind.
 
提到日本比鄰國產(chǎn)米少卻不提人均產(chǎn)量挺好笑的。到1961年，日本已經(jīng)是工業(yè)化國家，但其他國家不是。
這就像問為什么日本當時選擇搞科技，而不是像泰國那樣做稻米卡特爾，或者像美國那樣逼農(nóng)民買昂貴的、還不起的設(shè)備。
日本今天可能需要進行農(nóng)業(yè)改革，但歷史上的低效可能有其他原因。
 
@RUHappyATM
Japan has 12.5% of its land cultivated, about 47,250 sqkm. Water 1.4%. Agriculture employment at 3.1%.
Pop is 36% of the US.
US has about 17% of its land cultivated, about 1,681,826 sqkm. Water 7%. Agriculture employment at 1.62%.
I agree, it's lack of productivity, not enough land or water.
I can understand why they went on their conquests of Korea, Manchuria and the rest is history.
 
日本有12.5%的土地用于耕作，約47,250平方公里。水資源占1.4%。農(nóng)業(yè)就業(yè)率3.1%。
人口是美國的36%。
美國有約17%的土地用于耕作，約1,681,826平方公里。水資源占7%。農(nóng)業(yè)就業(yè)率1.62%。
我同意，這是生產(chǎn)力不足，不是土地或水不夠。
我能理解他們?yōu)槭裁慈フ鞣r、滿洲，后面的事就是歷史了。
 
@CjqNslXUcM
Self-sufficiency sounds nice in theory, but it's useless if it drains your economy so much that you lose the conflict you were preparing for by being self-sufficient before it even began.
 
自給自足理論上聽起來不錯，但如果它耗盡你的經(jīng)濟，讓你在準備自給自足的沖突開始前就輸了，那就沒用了。
 
@xoso599
Wow, government intervention into a market creates low efficiency production and high consumer prices. The lingering issue is propped up by special interests looking to continue to enrich the interest at the expense of the rest of the economy.
 
哇，政府干預(yù)市場導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)效率低、消費者價格高。長期問題被特殊利益集團撐著，他們?yōu)榱死^續(xù)致富不惜犧牲其他經(jīng)濟部分。
 
@Lcavl-clk
As a resident here, I see the main problem with Japanese is that they value new rice or seasonal 1st crop harvested rice. They have been spoiled. The politician's criticism of foreign imported rice as inferior has caused the Japanese not to be able to adapt to the new realities that sooner or later the farmers will be gone and the Japanese will only have imported rice to contend with. Another example are the expensive fruits that are grown to the highest standard and sweetness but only a few in Japan can truly enjoy. And of course stupid politicians who say stupid things during a time of crisis like his supporters have given him so much rice that he can actually sell them himself while the rest of the people reeling from the price increase. Basically the Japanese did that to themselves.
 
作為本地居民，我覺得日本人的主要問題是他們太看重新米或季節(jié)性初收米，他們被寵壞了。政客批評進口米質(zhì)量差，導(dǎo)致日本人無法適應(yīng)新現(xiàn)實：遲早農(nóng)民會消失，日本人只能靠進口米。另一個例子是那些按最高標準種植、超甜但只有少數(shù)日本人能享受的昂貴水果。當然，還有愚蠢的政客在危機時說蠢話，比如他的支持者給了他太多米，他都能自己賣了，而其他人還在為價格上漲發(fā)愁?；旧?，日本人是自找的。
 
@conor7154
There have been limits on rice purchases at the supermarket for months now and if you try to buy it on Amazon it will be delayed by weeks. It’s basically impossible to buy it at less than 4,000 yen for 5 kg unless you want to wait a really long time to get it. Grocery prices in general are extremely high in Japan, especially compared to the US, and rice being so high when it’s probably the largest calorie source is especially baffling.
 
超市幾個月來一直在限購大米，如果你在亞馬遜買，得等好幾周?；旧喜豢赡芤缘陀?000日元買到5公斤的米，除非你愿意等超久?？傮w來說，日本的雜貨價格極高，尤其是跟美國比，而大米作為可能是最大的熱量來源還這么貴，特別讓人費解。
 
@johnharker7194
The way it was described to me in university, is that plenty of Japanese would be willing to live in rural Japan. But government policies have made it unfeasible. Like your example of deliberately keeping farms small, preventing farmers from making a full income. the rush of Japanese to urban centers is often described as a problem of vanity. As if nobody would be interested in rural employment
 
大學(xué)里有人跟我描述日本有很多人愿意生活在農(nóng)村，但政府的政策讓這變得不可行。就像你說的，故意讓農(nóng)場保持小規(guī)模，阻止農(nóng)民賺足收入。日本人涌向城市中心常被說成是虛榮問題，好像沒人對農(nóng)村工作感興趣似的。
 
@mdkooter
Interestingly, Spanish short grain rice is dirt cheap and genetically closely related to Japanese rice. Japan could import bomba-rice from Spain, and several Italian rice species (which are less economic though). All descend from Japanese rice anyway. Taiwan's rice although also very similar is already quite pricey so I doubt it's a good solution.
 
有趣的是西班牙的短粒米便宜得要命，在基因上跟日本米很接近。日本可以從西班牙進口bomba米，還有幾種意大利米種（不過經(jīng)濟性差些）。這些米反正都源于日本米。臺灣（地區(qū)）的米雖然也很相似，但已經(jīng)挺貴了，估計不是好方案。
 
@goeddy
can't the difference between japanese and taiwanese rice yields just be explained by geography? the climate is much warmer in taiwan all year so presumably the rice grows better there without any winter.
 
日本和臺灣（地區(qū)）稻米產(chǎn)量的差異難道不能用地理來解釋嗎？臺灣（地區(qū)）全年氣候暖和得多，估計大米在那兒長得更好，沒有冬天的影響。
 
@ostsan8598
Sounds a bit like how America dealt with dairy production after WW2. Started with trying to keep farms afloat after the war and maintain reasonable market prices for dairy products. Now there's over a billion tons of cheese stored in former limestone mines.
 
這有點像美國二戰(zhàn)后處理乳制品生產(chǎn)的方式。一開始是為了戰(zhàn)后維持農(nóng)場運營，保持乳制品市場價格合理，現(xiàn)在有超過十億噸的奶酪儲存在原來的石灰?guī)r礦里。
 
@RhesusKalawLibertad
Can you also do a video essay about the rice farming and rice politics in the Philippines?
It's interesting how they kept away from WTO agreements involving rice imports.
 
你能不能也做一期關(guān)于菲律賓稻米農(nóng)業(yè)和稻米政治的視頻文章？
他們?nèi)绾伪荛_涉及大米進口的WTO協(xié)議挺有趣的。
 
@texx8205
This is a big shock to me as I would imagine the prices of rice would be actually a lot lower in Japan than in EU where it's imported. Here, it's about 2euro per 1kg whereas in Japan this is more than double. That's insane. Also, I still remember not so long ago, 1kg of round-grain rice was actually about 1euro.
 
這對我來說是個很大的震驚，我本來以為日本的大米價格會比歐盟低很多，畢竟歐盟是進口大米的。這兒1公斤大約2歐元，而日本比這貴一倍多，這太離譜了。還有，我記得不久前，1公斤圓粒米才1歐元左右。
 
@tehpanda64
They are complaining about ~3 dollars per lb? That is almost the same price im paying for very premium short grain rice delivered by that one jungle website in 2 days. I admit, if I go to that big blue supermarket you can get long grain rice (enriched) for like 50 cents per lb. So what kind of rice is 3 dollars per lb in japan? is that the cheapest rice? or is their standard rice very high quality? I am having trouble comparing prices here when "rice" can mean a lot of different things.
 
他們在抱怨每磅3美元左右？我在那個叢林網(wǎng)站買的超優(yōu)質(zhì)短粒米，兩天送到，價格也差不多。我承認如果去那個藍色大超市，長粒米（強化米）大概每磅50美分。日本3美元每磅的米是啥？是最便宜的米嗎？還是他們的標準米品質(zhì)很高？“大米”可以指很多不同東西，我在這兒比價格有點難。
 
@ericpmoss
Small and fragmented farms is not a bad thing. We have seen the consolidation of farms in the US and the farmers are still desperate and beholden to the banks, implement dealers, seed companies, chemical companies, and grain processors, all while depressing wholesale prices below the cost of production. Of course, the cost to consumers isn't being held down, because that cuts into shareholder profit.
 
小而分散的農(nóng)場不是壞事。我們看到美國農(nóng)場整合后，農(nóng)民還是很絕望，他們依賴銀行、設(shè)備商、種子公司、化學(xué)公司和谷物加工商，批發(fā)價還被壓到低于生產(chǎn)成本。當然，消費者成本沒有降，因為那會削減股東的利潤。
 
@wvsyagowten
I don’t usually watch farming videos, but when you talk about it it’s one of the most interesting topics ever. Also calling 25-35 degrees moderate for farmers sounds crazy for a Scandinavian like me who lives in a cold climate. If it’s 30 degrees it’s considered unbearable for most people. Most people prefer around 15-20 degrees in summer.
 
我平時不看農(nóng)業(yè)視頻，但你講的時候，這成了最有趣的話題之一。對我這個生活在寒冷氣候的斯堪的納維亞人來說，把25-35度叫“溫和”太瘋狂了。如果到30度，大多數(shù)人都覺得受不了。夏天大多數(shù)人更喜歡15-20度左右。
 
@jamescampbell6728
I've been on a vacation for the past month or so (my first time). I ran into a local who told me we were importing rice from America. I was rather surprised! Then we saw the price of a 2kg bag and we were pretty shocked how expensive it was compared to everything else. Great to see a video about this!
 
我過去一個月在度假（第一次）。我遇到個本地人告訴我，我們在從美國進口大米。我挺驚訝的！然后我們看到一袋2公斤的米價，震驚得不行，相比其他東西貴太多了。看到這個視頻很棒！
 
@Xaito
Living in Europe I've bought imported Japanese rice from Italy for years because I like it. Had a decent enough stock to last summer so I only recently noticed the scarcity. I've now bought Japanese style rice from Vietnam. Surprisingly it's so similar I've barely noticed any difference. This surprised me because in the past even other brand Japanese rice tasted different than the one I usually bought.
 
我生活在歐洲，我多年來買意大利產(chǎn)的日本米的原因是因為我喜歡。去年的庫存夠用，所以最近才注意到短缺。我現(xiàn)在買了越南產(chǎn)的日式大米。驚訝的是它跟原來買的幾乎一樣，我?guī)缀鯖]有察覺到差別。這讓我感到驚訝，因為過去即使是其他品牌的日本米，味道也跟我常買的不一樣。