"比希臘更糟"：日本的債務是否瀕臨崩潰點？

 
 
When inflation ticked up a few years ago, it brought anxiety to many governments - except for Japan who hoped to use the slightly higher inflation to get out of its zero-growth slump. But, that seems to have backfired, so, in this video, we're taking a look at the Japanese economy, the debt crisis and what could happen next.
 
數(shù)年前通脹初現(xiàn)時，多數(shù)政府感到憂慮，唯獨日本期待借助溫和通脹擺脫零增長困境。但事與愿違，本期視頻將剖析日本經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)狀、債務危機及可能的后續(xù)發(fā)展。
 

@zeroyuki92
As a non economist, it feels like the outcome of government chasing good numbers instead of focusing on producing actual value
 
作為非經(jīng)濟學專業(yè)人士，這似乎是政府追逐漂亮數(shù)據(jù)而非創(chuàng)造實際價值的結果。
 
@rkace155
You see, this is why lack of immigration is a problem for politicians. When there are no immigrants to blame, the politicians actually have to take the blame!
 
這正是移民短缺成為政客難題的原因。當沒有移民可指責時，政客們就不得不承擔罪責了！
 
@BZAKether
As the economists' "joke" says: There are 4 kinds of countries: developed countries, developing countries, Argentina, and Japan.
 
正如經(jīng)濟學家的"笑話"所說：世界上有四類國家——發(fā)達國家、發(fā)展中國家、阿根廷，以及日本。
 
@GlowingRoseDoesGeo
LDP: "We aren't managing the economy well"
Japanese Voterbase: "But we'll vote for you anyway!"
 
自民黨："我們沒有把經(jīng)濟管理好"。
日本選民："但我們照樣會投票給你！"
 
@mayafortin5993
Japan's debt situation definitely looks alarming—worse than Greece is a scary comparison. With such massive national debt, it feels like the country could be on the edge of a serious crisis that might impact global markets. But honestly, as someone trying to understand this better, I'm not sure what this means for everyday people or how we should prepare. If anyone has clear insights or practical advice on what this could mean and how to protect ourselves financially, I'd really appreciate the help. It's confusing and honestly overwhelming
 
日本的債務狀況確實令人擔憂——"比希臘更糟"這種比較很可怕。如此龐大的國債讓人感覺這個國家可能正處在會沖擊全球市場的嚴重危機的邊緣。但說實話，作為試圖理解這個問題的人，我不確定這對普通人意味著什么，也不知道該如何準備。如果有人能提供清晰的見解或實用的建議，說明這可能造成什么影響以及如何在財務上自我保護，我將非常感激。這真的很令人困惑，坦白說也很讓人不知所措。
 
@Eggmancan
You use the word "stagflationary" several times to describe Japan's past economy, but stagflation refers to an economy with high inflation but low growth. Japan's problem was that inflation was LOW, it was a deflationary economy. You guys are generally good about economics, so I was surprised but this mistake.
 
你們多次用"滯脹"形容日本過去的經(jīng)濟，但滯脹指的是高通脹伴隨低增長。日本的問題恰恰是通脹過低，屬于通縮型經(jīng)濟。你們通常對經(jīng)濟問題分析得很到位，所以這個錯誤讓我很意外。
 
@antonio_fosnjar
The situation is even worse when you consider that China has started to chip at Japans exports, specially at car market which is a sizeable chunk of GDP and employment.
 
考慮到中國已經(jīng)開始蠶食日本的出口市場，尤其是占GDP和就業(yè)相當比重的汽車領域，情況就更嚴峻了。
 
@ShikiByakko
It is all a policy problem.
The problem in Japan for decades now has been that there is no way for small companies to grow, and the government, SINCE THE 90'S, has maintained "too big to fail" companies out of trouble, and they have become "zombie corporations", that just waste money and do not care because they will get saved by the goverment.
On the regulatory side, Japan is worse than even the EU, and they constantly add new regulation to new and edge technologies, that basically kills any real development of these technologies by small companies, meaning that only big companies can do anything in the country, but they just don't since the only real competition that they feel is from outside Japan, and they are now so out of touch that they are just trying to survive instead of innovate.
The whole "deflation" thing was the symptom, not the cause of Japan's economic woes.
The fact that decades of extravagant monetary policy did absolutely nothing kind of shows this to be the fact.
 
這都是政策問題造成的。
幾十年來日本的癥結在于中小企業(yè)無法成長，而政府從上世紀90年代起就持續(xù)救助"大而不能倒"的企業(yè)，這些"僵尸企業(yè)"只會浪費資金且毫不在意，因為它們總能獲得來自政府的紓困。
在監(jiān)管方面日本比歐盟更嚴苛，他們不斷對新興技術增設新規(guī)，這在實質上扼殺了中小企業(yè)對這些技術的實際開發(fā)，這意味著只有大企業(yè)才能在國內有所作為，但它們毫無作為，因為它們唯一能感受到的競爭來自國外，如今它們與現(xiàn)實嚴重脫節(jié)，只顧生存而非創(chuàng)新。
所謂"通縮"只是表象，而非日本經(jīng)濟困境的根源。
數(shù)十年來激進的貨幣政策毫無成效恰恰證明了這一點。
 
@AA-ux6gg
I'm Japanese, but this guy only said that because he doesn't want to lower the consumption tax. He'll probably lose to the tax-cutting DPFP in the July election
Idk maybe we'll get to see Japan's own Liz Truss shock, but since this channel is run by a British person, this joke might be pretty funny lol
 
我是日本人，但這個家伙說這些只是不想降低消費稅。七月的大選他很可能敗給主張減稅的民主黨。
說不定我們能看到日本版的"特拉斯危機"，不過既然這是英國人的頻道，這個玩笑可能挺有意思。
 
@paulm2467
The biggest difference is that Japanese debt is owned by the Japanese public so it isn't susceptible to international pressure, the US debt is enormous and growing fast and about 20% of it is owned by foreign governments, this means that the probable loss of reserve currency status is going to put massive pressure on the USA as it won't be able to service its debts.
 
最大區(qū)別在于日本的債務由國民持有，不受國際壓力的影響，而美國的債務龐大且快速增長，約20%由外國政府持有，這意味著如果失去儲備貨幣地位，美國將因無力償債而承受巨大的壓力。
 
@banished341
Who would have guessed that:
A %200+ Debt is impossible to service.
Inflation as a result of price hikes on necessities like food and fuel doesn't spur growth (because they're necessary to live)
A nation of seniors (which Japan is) can't be jolted into becoming a consumption-driven economy.
As a mathematician, it boggles my mind how dumb "smart people with PhDs" can be when it comes to storytelling from numbers.
 
誰能想到：
200%以上的債務根本無法償還。
食品燃料等必需品漲價帶來的通脹不會刺激增長（因為這些都是生存必需品）。
老齡化國家（如日本）無法被刺激成消費驅動型經(jīng)濟。
作為數(shù)學家，這些"聰明博士"用數(shù)據(jù)講故事時的愚蠢程度令我震驚。
 
@taraldomland8657
Japans problems started when America forced them to upvalue the yen and to buy more American. Japan should try to reverse this. Think about themselfs and not so much their alliance. Japan actually really need to just reboost their economy
 
日本的問題始于美國強迫日元升值和購買更多美國貨。日本應該設法扭轉這種情況，多考慮自身而非盟友。日本現(xiàn)在真正需要的是重振經(jīng)濟。
 
@Nick-tb3cl
This video is misleading. It should also mention that Japan holds the largest net external assets in the world. Of course, it's true that the country faces serious fiscal challenges, but that doesn't tell the whole story.
 
這個視頻有誤導性。它應該提到日本持有全球最大的凈外部資產，當然該國確實面臨嚴峻的財政挑戰(zhàn)，但這并非全貌。
 
@dominikmankowski1636
It is not worse than Greece's debt. The vast majority of Japan's debt is internal, owed to Japanese citizens. The Japanese government can print money at any time (while simultaneously increasing inflation) to repay it. Greece, on the other hand, had (and still has) most of its debt owed to foreign entities (mainly German banks), and since it is in the eurozone, it cannot print its own money.
 
情況不比希臘更糟。日本的債務絕大部分是內債，是欠本國公民的。政府隨時可以印鈔償還（同時會推升通脹）。而希臘的債務主要是欠外國實體的（主要是德國的銀行），而且因其身處歐元區(qū)而無法自行印鈔。
 
@ShelleyWerk
Unfortunately, not all of us were financially literate early. I was 35 when I finally educated myself and started taking steps. I went from $176,000 in debt with zero savings or retirement to now, 2 years later, fully debt-free and over $1000,000 net worth. I know that doesn't SOUND like a lot, but I'm incredibly proud of it. Now I'm fast-tracking my wealth building (investing $400,000 annually) and don't owe a dime to anyone. It's a good feeling!..
 
遺憾的是并非所有人都早早具備理財意識。我35歲才自學并采取行動，從負債17.6萬美元且零存款零退休金，到兩年后完全無債且凈資產超100萬美元。雖然我知道這聽起來不多，但我非常自豪?，F(xiàn)在我正加速財富積累（年投資40萬美元）且不欠任何人一分錢。這感覺真好！
 
@tobiwan001
The US also had a 20y bond yield auction yesterday that was so weak it almost failed. That led to another spike in the 20y yield (above 5.2%). It's likely the FED will have to intervene in the US bond market to save the dollar, before Trump starts flirting with default.
 
美國昨日20年期國債拍賣需求疲軟幾乎流標，這導致20年期國債收益率再次飆升（超5.2%）。在特朗普開始玩弄違約念頭前，美聯(lián)儲可能不得不干預債市以拯救美元。
 
@paul1979uk2000
I think the main problem with Japan is there secret nature as a country compared to western countries which are far more open.
Japan had the advantage until the 90's because Japan jumped on the tech train before western countries did, but in the 90's, we had a tech boom that both North America and Europe jumped on, it wiped out the advantage Japan has had and Japan have been struggling ever since and it's just simple things from slow adoption to the internet because it's a western tech.
What really surprises me is that this has been going on for 35 years and you would think that Japan would do some major policy changes to kick-start its economy, but it's struggling ever since and things would have been worse for Japan if it wasn't for the economic boom in the Asian region which has a knock on effect on boosting growth on nearby countries.
Personally, I think Japan is going to continue to sink compared to its rivals in the region unless drastic changes are done at a political and economic level and considering little has changed over 35 years, it doesn't bold well for the future of Japan.
 
我認為日本主要問題在于其封閉性，這與高度開放的西方國家形成了對比。
因其比西方更早搭上科技快車，日本的優(yōu)勢持續(xù)到了上世紀90年代。但上世紀90年代歐美迎來了科技繁榮，直接抹平了日本的優(yōu)勢。此后日本連互聯(lián)網(wǎng)這種西方技術都接受遲緩，最終陷入了困境。
最令我驚訝的是這種情況持續(xù)了35年卻未見重大的政策調整來振興經(jīng)濟。若非亞洲經(jīng)濟繁榮對周邊國家的帶動作用，日本的處境會更糟。
個人認為除非進行政治經(jīng)濟層面的徹底改革，否則日本將繼續(xù)落后于地區(qū)競爭對手?？紤]到他們35年來幾無變革，其前景不容樂觀。
 
@pawelzybulskij3367
Even if Japanese bonds turn into junk and Yen collapses, Japan still has about a trillion of US treasures to burn through to prop up current level of services, only after that, they would have to turn to IMF and become Argentinian style economy and decline to the same standards o living.
 
即便日本債券淪為垃圾級、日元崩潰，日本仍有約萬億美債可消耗來維持現(xiàn)有的服務水平。只有耗盡這些儲備后，它才需要向IMF求助，淪為阿根廷式的經(jīng)濟并降低生活標準。
 
@fernbedek6302
Japan shows that, once you're a developed nation with good living standards, if you have low inflation you don't need economic growth. Capitalists complained, but their living standards remained high for the actual people. (They had other issues, but a lot of those predated the economic stagnation.) Considering we're on a world with a finite amount of resources more countries should try to follow the Japanese model, rather than trying to pull Japan out of its stability.
 
日本證明：當成為生活水平高的發(fā)達國家后，只要保持低通脹就無需經(jīng)濟增長。資本家雖有怨言，但民眾的生活水平依然很高（日本確有其他問題，但多數(shù)早于經(jīng)濟停滯出現(xiàn)）?？紤]到地球的資源有限，更多國家應該效仿日本模式，而非試圖將日本拉出穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)。
 
@BigBoiiLeem
Japan does not and has not had "stagflation". I heard that term used a few times. Stagflation is stagnation coupled with persistently above-average inflation (like what America experienced in the 70s). What Japan is experiencing is an entirely different and completely Japanese economic phenomenon.
 
日本從未出現(xiàn)"滯脹"，我聽到過幾次對這個詞的誤用。滯脹是經(jīng)濟停滯并伴隨持續(xù)高于平均的通脹（如美國上世紀70年代的經(jīng)歷）。日本經(jīng)歷的是完全不同的、獨有的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象。
 
@Muhammad_Ahmad_
I don't understand why Japan wants to have a "normal" economy, even though growth is weak, inflation is also low enough that wage growth isn't much of an issue for Japanese people, immigration is also low therefore easing the pressure on housing, Japan doesn't have a cost of living crisis the way other western nations do, they should have just stuck with what they're used to
 
我不懂日本為何追求"正常的"經(jīng)濟——他們的增長雖弱但通脹極低，這使得薪資問題不突出，低移民緩解了住房壓力，也沒有其他西方國家的生活成本危機。他們本應維持習慣的模式。
 
@ThomasLuke-u3v
Well, to be honest, politicians decrease debt through inflation. Then we end up with currencies with a whole lot of zeros on it. Back just 30 years ago $1 million was something now everyone that owns a house in Canada is a millionaire.
 
說實話，政客們通過通脹稀釋債務，最終會導致貨幣面值多出許多零。30年前100萬美元很了不起，但現(xiàn)在加拿大的每個房主都是百萬富翁。
 
@ichifish
The problem with your 5% wage increase at "large companies" statistic is that it isn't representative of the larger economy, as it accounts for maybe 30% of jobs. Most of us did not get a wage increase, and instead got hammered by the 12% decline in the value of the yen between 2022-2025, along with inflation. Japan imports 60% of its food, so a weak yen really hits home. Doesn't help that JA makes commodities like rice artificially high in order to siphon money off of families to buy farmer's votes for their politicians. People are pissed, and not like ideologically-addled Americans, we're pissed because basic necessities are too costly. Imagine paying the exact same amount for basic needs for close to two decades, while wages remain the same, and suddenly food costs jump by 30% in a couple of years. Now Trump's tariffs are about to push us over the edge into a full-on recession.
 
你們統(tǒng)計的"大企業(yè)"的5%的漲薪不具有代表性，因為這只覆蓋了約30%的崗位。多數(shù)人沒有漲薪，反而遭受了2022-2025年間日元貶值12%和通脹的雙重打擊。日本60%的食品依賴進口，日元疲軟影響巨大。更糟的是農協(xié)人為抬高大米等商品的價格，從家庭吸血換取農民對政客的選票。日本民眾的憤怒不同于美國人的意識形態(tài)狂熱，我們憤怒是因為基礎生活物資太貴。想象一下近二十年基本生活支出不變、工資停滯，突然幾年內食品價格暴漲30%會是什么樣子?，F(xiàn)在特朗普的關稅政策即將把我們推入全面的衰退。
 
@Ken52172
PM Ishiba has made totally a wrong statement. Japan's situation is very different from Greece. One cannot compare only by the debt to GDP ratio. Bonds are issued in JPY. BOJ has been purchasing these bonds, and interest earnings are eventually returned to the government. It can be sustainable as long as the inflation rate is not too high.
 
石破首相的言論是完全錯誤的。日本的情況與希臘截然不同，不能僅憑債務/GDP比率來比較。日本國債以日元發(fā)行，央行持續(xù)購債且利息收益最終回流政府。只要通脹率不過高，這種模式就可以持續(xù)。
 
@Tamavia-y6q
You work for 42yrs to have $2m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $20k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life
 
有人工作42年攢200萬美元退休金，同時另一些人花2萬美元買 meme幣幾個月就成了千萬富翁。愿讀到這段話的人都人生成功。
 
@williamjacobs
Japan's debt is NOT worse than Greece and won't be. Greece is chained to the euro and does not control its own economy. They should reintroduce the drachma as a competing currency just like the pound sterling used to in the UK to provide flexibility with fiscal stimulus.
 
日本的債務不比希臘更糟，未來也不會。希臘受歐元束縛無法自主掌控經(jīng)濟，他們應該像英國保留英鎊那樣重新啟用德拉克馬作為競爭性貨幣以獲得財政刺激的靈活性。
 
@stephenmark-q1b-w3y
This will end ugly you say. But every crash brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped. I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crash, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich.
 
你說結局會很糟，但每次崩盤都伴隨對提前準備者的機遇。我見過有人在危機中賺取百萬美元，在有利條件下甚至輕松達成。毫無疑問，泡沫/崩潰正讓某些人暴富。
 
@cyrusol
Just 1 minute in and I already can't describe how stupid this is.
The PM, following an ideology that is based on a complete lack of understanding about state finances publically badmouthes the creditworthiness of his own government when the entire idea of having to pay interest rate as a government is artificially engineered because of that ideology...
Jesus Christ. And that with Japan doing relatively well despite their numbers in the past 20 years - which should have been convincing enough that the "extraordinary" policies employed by Japan and the BoJ that contradicted "mainstream wisdeom" about state finances were sound and legit.
PS: Japan's GDP and related figures only looked bad post 2000 because of exchange rates against the USD worsening. The same figures in JPY looked quite well and since imports made up about 20-25% of GDP (exports are comparable) and households spending less than that on imported goods the reality for Japanese people looked much better between 2000 and 2025 than alls those figures denoted in USD suggest.
 
開場1分鐘我就被這種愚蠢震驚了。
首相遵循一套完全不懂國家財政的意識形態(tài)，公開貶低政府信用評級——而"政府需要支付利息"這個概念本身就是該意識形態(tài)人為制造的...
天啊。過去20年日本的實際表現(xiàn)相對良好，這本應足以證明其違背"主流智慧"的特殊政策是合理有效的。
注：2000年后日本的GDP等數(shù)據(jù)看似糟糕，但這只是因為日元兌美元貶值。如果以日元計這些數(shù)據(jù)相當不錯，且因進口僅占GDP的20-25%（出口比例相似）、家庭進口商品支出更少，2000-2025年間日本民眾的實際境況比美元數(shù)據(jù)顯示的好得多。
 
@lorenzo1988ITA
The problem with TLDR is that, after puttin a catchy clickbait question in the title, the videos are then vague and not straight to the point (and sometimes even worse not at all adressing the question)
 
長話短說，這個頻道的問題是：標題用吸引眼球的問題，而視頻的內容卻含糊其辭，不切要害（有時甚至完全不回答問題）。
 
@lucapieralisi
The major problem for Japan is not the debt especially because most of it is held by Japan itself, ie the CBJ, local banks and companies.
The only problem for Japan is that at the pace the country is losing its people - around 600k every year since some time now - there is not going to be a Japan/Japanese by mid century or the Japanese left will be well over 70 years old.
As a former Japanese prime minister warned, if this population trend will continue, the country will stop working as a organized society...
 
日本的主要問題不是債務——尤其因大部分債務由央行、地方銀行和企業(yè)持有。
日本真正的問題是人口流失速度——近年來每年約減少60萬人，照此趨勢到本世紀中葉或將無日本民族存續(xù)，剩下的日本人也都會超70歲。
正如某位前首相警告：若人口趨勢持續(xù)，日本將無法維持有組織的社會運轉...
 
@andreasarnoalthofsobottka2928
There must be a reason why no gouvernment on earth ever chose the easy and obvious way out of fiscal trouble: tax the rich and corporations; stop spending on pet- projects and the military.
 
全球政府都不會選擇最直接簡單的財政困境解決方案（向富豪和企業(yè)征稅；停止政績工程和軍費開支），其中必有緣由。
 
@SophiaSchmidt-w4w
If banks and big institutions are pulling back, regular people like us will feel it soon. job cuts, rising debt, and shrinking investments. I already lost money in the market last year, and now I'm wondering how to protect what's left.
 
如果銀行和大機構撤資，我們普通人很快就會受到影響：裁員、債務增加、投資萎縮。去年我在市場上虧損嚴重，現(xiàn)在只想知道如何保住剩余的資產。
 
@ECOpocket
Japan has always been somewhat restrained by the US and, to some extent, they've been okay with that. But maybe now is the time for Japan to take matters into its own hands and save itself.
 
日本始終受到美國的制約，某種程度上也安于現(xiàn)狀，但或許現(xiàn)在應該自立更生了。
 
@Student-m4f
I believe Japan will overcome it. The nation has a long history of adapting to structural and economic challenges through innovation, social cohesion, and policy shifts. Despite the alarming debt-to-GDP ratio, Japan maintains strong institutional trust, domestic debt ownership, and a technologically advanced economy. These factors provide a foundation for sustainable restructuring, even if painful reforms in taxation, social spending, and labor policy become unavoidable.
 
我相信日本能度過難關。這個國家歷來通過創(chuàng)新、社會凝聚力和政策調整來應對結構性經(jīng)濟挑戰(zhàn)。盡管債務/GDP比率驚人，但日本保有強大的制度信任度、債務內循環(huán)體系和先進的技術經(jīng)濟。即便必須進行稅收、社保和勞工政策的痛苦改革，這些也都為可持續(xù)的重組奠定了基礎。
 
@tortoisewarrior4855
I remember everyone saying that we should all go down Japans route, strong welfare state zero immigration, and I just show them this, and they kind of deny it's even a problem. It's an economic time bomb.
 
記得大家都說該效仿日本模式——高福利，零移民，當我給他們看這些數(shù)據(jù)時，他們卻矢口否認存在問題。這根本就是經(jīng)濟定時炸彈。
 
@I_like_YT_lots
I think one way Japan can help stimulate its economy is by welcoming immigration. It is well known is super hard to move there unless you have sponsorships with work. The aging population and low birth rate (although is similar in a lot of developed countries) is going to make the country less productive in future years. History had shown immigration helps to revive country, they just need to ensure to help immigrats intergate to the sophisticated Japanese culture but at the same time educating local citizens to welcome some form of diversity. The quickest way is allow skilled labour in a scoring type system to immigrate there while welcome foreign companies to base there rather than say Singapore.
 
日本刺激經(jīng)濟的一個方法是開放移民。眾所周知除非有工作擔保，否則極難移民日本。老齡化與低生育率（雖在發(fā)達國家普遍）將導致未來的生產力下降。歷史證明移民能振興國家，只需確保幫助移民融入精密的日本文化，同時教育國民接受多樣性即可。最快的途徑是建立積分制引進技術勞工并吸引外企落戶。