Roxana Saberi felt like she was back behind bars in Tehran. As she watched Israel’s bombing of Evin prison, the notorious detention facility at the core of Iran’s political repression, she shuddered at memories of solitary confinement, relentless interrogation, fabricated espionage charges and a sham trial during her 100-day incarceration in 2009.

羅克珊娜·薩貝里感覺自己仿佛回到了德黑蘭的監(jiān)獄。當她看到以色列轟炸埃文監(jiān)獄——伊朗政治壓迫核心的臭名昭著的拘留設施時，她回憶起2009年被監(jiān)禁100天期間的單獨監(jiān)禁、無休止的審訊、捏造的間諜指控和虛假審判，不寒而栗。

Like many Iranians in the diaspora and at home, Ms. Saberi wavered, torn between her dreams of a government collapse that would free the country’s immense potential and her concern for family and friends as the civilian death toll mounted. Longings for liberation and for a cease-fire vied with each other.

像許多海內(nèi)外伊朗人一樣，薩貝里女士猶豫不決，她既夢想政府垮臺以釋放國家巨大的潛力，又擔心隨著平民死亡人數(shù)的增加，家人和朋友的安危。解放的渴望與停火的愿望相互沖突。

“For a moment, I imagined seeing Iran again in my lifetime,” said Ms. Saberi, 48, a dual Iranian and American citizen and author who has taken a break from her journalistic career. “I also thought how ridiculous it was that the Islamic Republic wasted decades accusing thousands of women’s rights advocates, dissidents and others of being spies, when they couldn’t catch the real spies.”

“有那么一刻，我想象自己有生之年能再次看到伊朗，”48歲的薩貝里女士說，她是伊朗和美國雙重國籍的公民及作家，目前暫停了她的新聞事業(yè)?！拔乙灿X得荒謬的是，伊斯蘭共和國幾十年來浪費時間指控成千上萬的婦女權利倡導者、異見人士和其他人是間諜，而他們卻抓不到真正的間諜?！?br />
Those spies, mainly from Israel’s Mossad foreign intelligence service, penetrated Iran’s highest political and military echelons. The question now is what a shaken Islamic Republic in dire economic straits will do with what President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, has called “a golden opportunity for change.” That moment is also one of extreme, even existential, risk brought on by the 12-day Israeli-Iranian war that the United States briefly joined.

這些間諜主要來自以色列摩薩德外情報機構，滲透進了伊朗最高政治和軍事階層?，F(xiàn)在的問題是，經(jīng)濟陷入困境的伊斯蘭共和國將如何利用溫和派總統(tǒng)馬蘇德·佩澤什基安所說的“變革的黃金機會”。這一時刻也因美國短暫加入的為期12天的以色列-伊朗戰(zhàn)爭帶來了極端甚至關乎存亡的風險。

The military campaign flirted with dislodging the clerical autocracy that has made uranium enrichment the symbol of Iran’s national pride, but stopped short of killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, even though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had said that the ayatollah’s death would “end the conflict.” The 46-year-old Islamic Republic limps on.

這場軍事行動險些動搖了以鈾濃縮為國家驕傲象征的教士專制，但并未殺死伊朗86歲的最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內(nèi)伊，盡管以色列總理本雅明·內(nèi)塔尼亞胡曾表示，哈梅內(nèi)伊的死亡將“結(jié)束沖突”。46歲的伊斯蘭共和國仍在蹣跚前行。

It does so despite the collapse of its “axis of resistance” that was formed through the funding, at vast expense, of anti-Western proxies from Lebanon to Yemen; despite the devastating bombing of its equally exorbitant nuclear facilities that never produced a bomb and scarcely lit a lightbulb; and despite the humiliation of surrendering the skies above Iran to its enemies.

盡管其耗資巨大的“抵抗軸心”——通過資助從黎巴嫩到也門的反西方代理人形成——已經(jīng)崩潰；盡管其同樣昂貴的核設施遭到毀滅性轟炸，這些設施從未制造出核彈，也幾乎未能點亮一盞燈泡；盡管它屈辱地向敵人交出了伊朗上空的控制權，它仍在繼續(xù)。

Yet Mr. Khamenei, as the guardian of the theocratic anti-Western revolution that triumphed in 1979, sees himself as the victor. “The Islamic Republic won,” he said in a video broadcast on Thursday from a secret location, laying to rest rumors of his demise.

然而，作為1979年勝利的神權反西方革命的守護者，哈梅內(nèi)伊認為自己是勝利者?！耙了固m共和國贏了，”他在周四從一個秘密地點發(fā)布的視頻中說，平息了關于他死亡的謠言。

His is a survival game dosed with prudence that now faces the greatest test of his 36 years in power.

他的生存游戲充滿了謹慎，現(xiàn)在面臨著他36年執(zhí)政生涯中最大的考驗。

“To understand Iran and Khamenei and the people around him is to understand that the Islamic Republic’s survival is always a victory,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London think tank.

“要理解伊朗、哈梅內(nèi)伊及其周圍的人，就要明白伊斯蘭共和國的生存永遠是勝利，”倫敦智庫查塔姆研究所中東和北非項目主任薩南·瓦基爾說。

Revolution at a Crossroads

革命處于十字路口

Already, tensions over how to address the crisis brought on by the war are evident.

如何應對戰(zhàn)爭引發(fā)的危機，緊張局勢已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。

President Pezeshkian appears to favor a liberalizing makeover, repairing relations with the West through a possible nuclear deal. He has spoken in recent days of “an opportunity to change our views on governance.”

佩澤什基安總統(tǒng)似乎傾向于自由化改革，通過可能的核協(xié)議修復與西方的關系。他最近幾天提到“改變我們對治理看法的機會”。

It was not clear what he meant, but many in Iran favor strengthening elected institutions and making the supreme leader more of a figurehead than the ultimate font of authority. They seek an Islamic Republic that is more of a republic, where women are empowered and a younger generation no longer feels oppressed by a gerontocratic theological system.

他的意思尚不清楚，但許多伊朗人支持加強民選機構，使最高領袖更多地成為象征性人物，而非最終權威的源泉。他們尋求一個更像共和國的伊斯蘭共和國，在那里女性被賦予權力，年輕一代不再感到被老年神學系統(tǒng)壓迫。

Mr. Khamenei insisted that the Israeli and American attack on nuclear facilities had failed “to achieve anything significant.” But Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi seemed to question that judgment, saying on Thursday that the country’s nuclear facilities had sustained “significant and serious damage.”

哈梅內(nèi)伊堅稱以色列和美國對核設施的攻擊“未能取得任何重大成果”。但外交部長阿巴斯·阿拉克奇似乎對此判斷提出質(zhì)疑，他在周四表示，國家的核設施遭受了“重大且嚴重的損害”。

Hardliners see any disunity as a danger signal. They believe concessions presage collapse. The fall of the Soviet unx in 1991, 69 years after its formation, and the “color revolutions” that brought Western democracy to post-Soviet states, deeply affected Mr. Khamenei and his entourage.

強硬派將任何不團結(jié)視為危險信號。他們認為妥協(xié)預示著崩潰。1991年蘇聯(lián)在其成立69年后解體，以及帶來西方民主的“顏色革命”對后蘇聯(lián)國家的影響，深深影響了哈梅內(nèi)伊及其隨行人員。

They are suspicious of any nuclear deal, and adamant that Iran must retain the right to enrich uranium on its soil, which Israel and the United States have said is unacceptable. They are also strongly represented in the country’s single most powerful institution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

他們對任何核協(xié)議持懷疑態(tài)度，并堅持伊朗必須保留在其領土上濃縮鈾的權利，而以色列和美國表示這是不可接受的。他們還在該國最強大的單一機構——伊斯蘭革命衛(wèi)隊中擁有強大的代表性。

The Guards number 150,000 to 190,000 members, Ms. Vakil said. With control over vast swaths of the economy, they have a deep vested interest in the government’s survival. They are the kind of large institutional buffer that President Bashar al-Assad in Syria lacked before his downfall last year.

瓦基爾女士說，革命衛(wèi)隊有15萬至19萬名成員。他們控制著經(jīng)濟的廣大領域，對政府的生存有深厚的既得利益。他們是敘利亞總統(tǒng)巴沙爾·阿薩德去年倒臺前所缺乏的那種大型機構緩沖。

Already, as it did in 2009 when a large-scale uprising threatened the toppling of the Islamic Republic, Iran has embarked on a crackdown involving hundreds of arrests, at least three executions, and the deployment of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia in Kurdish and other restive areas.

正如2009年大規(guī)模起義威脅推翻伊斯蘭共和國時所做的那樣，伊朗已開始進行鎮(zhèn)壓，涉及數(shù)百人被捕，至少三人被處決，并在庫爾德地區(qū)和其他不安定地區(qū)部署了革命衛(wèi)隊和巴斯基民兵。

Iranians have seen this movie before. Some wonder what the war was for if they are to face another bludgeoning. “The people want to know who is to blame for multiple defeats, but there is no leader to take on the regime,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a prominent political scientist in the United Arab Emirates. “A weak Islamic Republic could hang on four or five years.”

伊朗人之前已經(jīng)看過這部電影了。有些人想知道，如果他們要面對又一次打擊，這場戰(zhàn)爭是為了什么。阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國的著名政治學家阿卜杜勒哈勒克·阿卜杜拉說：“人民想知道誰該為多次失敗負責，但沒有領導人來對抗這個政權。”“一個虛弱的伊斯蘭共和國可能還能堅持四五年?！?br />
This weakness appears deep. The “victory” claimed by Mr. Khamenei cannot disguise the fact that Iran is now a nation with near zero deterrence.

這種虛弱似乎根深蒂固。哈梅內(nèi)伊宣稱的“勝利”無法掩蓋伊朗現(xiàn)在幾乎沒有威懾力的事實。

“I would imagine that deep in his bunker, Khamenei’s priority must be how to rebuild a deterrence that was based on the nuclear program, the missile program and armed proxies, all now in shreds,” said Jeffrey Feltman, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and, as United Nations under secretary-general for political affairs in 2012, one of the few Americans to have met the supreme leader.

“我可以想象，在他的地堡深處，哈梅內(nèi)伊的首要任務一定是重建基于核計劃、導彈計劃和武裝代理人的威懾力，而這些現(xiàn)在都已支離破碎，”華盛頓布魯金斯學會客座研究員杰弗里·費爾特曼說，他曾在2012年擔任聯(lián)合國政治事務副秘書長，是少數(shù)見過最高領袖的美國人之一。

“Khamenei was obsessed with the mendacity and belligerence of the United States,” Mr. Feltman recalled. “His eyes were benevolent, but his words, expressed in a quiet, dull monotone, were anything but benevolent.”

“哈梅內(nèi)伊癡迷于美國的虛偽和好戰(zhàn)，”費爾特曼回憶說。“他的眼神是仁慈的，但他的話語，以一種安靜、單調(diào)的語氣表達，絲毫沒有仁慈。”

Saberi’s hopes rose and fell during the recent fighting as she sat in her parents’ home in North Dakota. Against her better instincts, she found herself digging out her Iranian passport as the 12 days passed, and considering renewing it.

在最近的戰(zhàn)斗中，薩貝里的希望時起時落，她坐在北達科他州父母的家中。違背自己的直覺，她發(fā)現(xiàn)自己在12天過去時翻出了自己的伊朗護照，并考慮續(xù)簽。

She has not visited Iran in the 16 years since her release, knowing that return, as she put it, “would be a one-way ticket.” But the tug of her second home, Iran, where she lived for six years, endures.

自從獲釋后的16年里，她沒有回過伊朗，她知道，正如她所說，回去“將是一張單程票”。但她生活了六年的第二個家——伊朗的吸引力依然存在。

“Iran’s in our heart, it’s in our blood, there is nowhere in the world like it, and I know so many Iranians in the diaspora who would go back and contribute if the regime falls,” she said. “My dad, in his 80s, spends his time translating Persian poetry.”

“伊朗在我們的心中，在我們的血液中，世界上沒有哪個地方能與之相比，我知道許多海外伊朗人如果政權垮臺會回去貢獻力量，”她說?！拔腋赣H，80多歲了，把時間花在翻譯波斯詩歌上?！?